The National Basketball Association (NBA) regular season is demanding for everyone involved, including players, coaches, bettors, and oddsmakers. There are 82 games played throughout the season, followed by a playoff that lasts two months and features 30 different teams. It isn’t easy to anticipate the result of an NBA game, just as it is with any other significant market.
But, it is much more difficult to exceed the point spread established by the oddsmakers constantly enough to overcome the vigorish, also known as the juice, which is required to generate a profit — normally 52.38 percent on bets with an odds of -110.
Bettors interested in the NBA may, however, find opportunities to improve their chances of winning. There is no better time than the present to discuss my strategy for betting on NBA games regularly and to learn more about how to bet on basketball in a way that is more successful than right now, given that a new season is just around the corner.
Basketball Betting Strategies
1. Make Your Bets in Advance
When betting on NBA games, starting your wagers as soon as the markets open each morning is one of the finest methods to give yourself an advantage over other bettors. This implies that you need to be accessible to place bets between 8:00 and 9:00 am Eastern Time if you’re located on the East Coast.
With a market as large as the NBA, there is no room for anything to go through the cracks. Injury news, inefficiencies within the market, and wrong lines are promptly adjusted by the smartest bettors and betting syndicates in the globe who are looking to snap up the value on NBA sides and totals before the value is drained out of the line.
Since oddsmakers and bettors get more information on games as we approach closer to tip-off, betting early allows you to profit on errors in the first lines that are released by oddsmakers before they are changed.
As the day progresses, the odds grow increasingly precise and difficult to defeat as bookmakers continue to change their lines in response to the activity they receive, as well as injury news and other considerations.
Beating the closing line regularly is one of the most significant prognostic indications of a long-term winner as a bettor. If you wager before the game starts, you may produce Closing Line Value and get higher odds than what the line will be when it finally closes.
With the help of the data stored in our Bet Labs database, we generated some statistics on the NBA point spreads versus the closing lines during the previous ten years. The chart that follows demonstrates that there is a ton of value in getting ahead of the market as your win % grows with every half-point that bettors beat the closing line. You can see this value for yourself by looking at the chart.
2. Analyze and Respond to Injury Reports
Regarding wagering, the significance of injuries in the National Basketball Association (NBA) cannot be overstated. Since a basketball team only plays five players at a time, a single player has the potential to have a greater influence on the game than in any other team sport. This is in contrast to other team sports, such as football and baseball, in which there are 11 players on either side of the ball.
Betting ahead of time may give you a competitive advantage, but it also puts you at risk of missing out on important injury updates that may come out later in the day. The NBA should be approached in stages. You should wager early in the morning, but you should also ensure that you are accessible in the afternoon to keep up with the latest injury news and seek games to bet on where an injury might substantially influence the game’s outcome.
It would be best to forecast which players would sit out based on previous performance, news reports, and the betting markets. Today, it is usual for elite players to sit out of back-to-back games since load management requires them to do so. One of the finest opportunities for bettors to acquire an advantage is when dealing with sportsbooks that move their spreads and totals more slowly and are slower to respond to injury news than other sportsbooks.
Learning how different types of coaches approach the game is also very important. Although some coaches want to put their teams through their paces throughout the regular season, others are more prone to sit their players’ numbers. For instance, the head coach of the New York Knicks, Tom Thibodeau, is known to encourage his team to play their best every game. In contrast, the head coaches of the San Antonio Spurs and the Los Angeles Clippers, Gregg Popovich and Tyron Lue, are more likely to load manage their respective teams’ most valuable players.
Please pay attention to what coaches say (and don’t say) at press conferences and other opportunities when available to the media. Coaches have provided strategic information to beat reporters in the days leading to games.
3. Keep an eye out for scheduling options.
Although the NBA has made measures to cut down on the number of back-to-backs, NBA clubs will play an average of 13.5 back-to-backs with no rest games (the second game of a back-to-back) this season. Even though this occurs in a much smaller percentage (less than 17%) of their 82 games, bettor opportunities exist here.
We cannot isolate this factor since this season; there are no periods in which a team plays four games on five consecutive nights. On the other hand, the Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trailblazers, and San Antonio Spurs all have instances in the season when they play eight games in 12 nights.
It is important to keep this in mind throughout the season and to search for opportunities to fade certain teams during portions of the season in which they are likely to have weary legs.
The two-game series is a more recent scheduling oddity established during the pandemic to lessen the amount of travel needed during the constricted schedule from the previous season. There will be 23 two-game series that will take place in the same stadium, and there is no doubt that it is beneficial to see two different teams compete in consecutive games.
During the previous season, the team that finished behind in the series by one game had a record of 27-14-12 (65.9%) against the spread.
4. Possessions: How many possessions will there be in a game?
Pace is one of the most important elements to consider when judging totals in the NBA. The number of possessions in a game, just as much as a team’s offensive efficiency, may affect how high-scoring a clash will be.
Last season, the Washington Wizards finished 18th in offensive rating but third in points per game (116.6) due to the league’s quickest Pace (106.4). Calculating Pace will give you a good idea of how many possessions you’ll have for the remainder of the game.
Pace is defined and calculated by Basketball Reference as follows:
Pace Factor (available in the NBA from the 1973-74 season; the calculation is 48 * ((Tm Poss + Opp Poss) / (2 * (Tm MP / 5)). The pace factor assesses a team’s possessions per 48 minutes. (Note: For the WNBA, 40 minutes is utilized in the computation.)
When looking at play totals, there are many questions to consider:
Is this game between a fast-paced squad and a slow-paced team? Which side is more likely to force its will on the other regarding style? Is one or both of these teams nearing the conclusion of a long road trip? What is the team’s game plan going into the game?
Games 5 and 6 of the Western Conference Finals between the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Clippers exceeded the final total, as the Suns committed to playing faster and getting into their offense more quickly.
Game 5 featured 97.5 possessions, exceeding the total of 213.5. The capacity for Game 6 was changed to 214.5, and it too went over; the Suns found effective offense against a fatigued Clippers club that had played every other day for almost a month.
There are other questions. How efficient have these crimes been lately, and are they likely to slow down? How does the shot quality look? Are these teams attempting but failing to make open 3-pointers? Are these teams collectively outperforming expectations on offense? What type of positive or negative regression may we anticipate due to these offenses?
If you have a model, you may compare your line to the market line, but you can also look at both teams’ previous plays to see if you have an advantage.
5. Live Betting
Live wagering has become one of the most popular kinds of Betting since it enables sports fans to make a bet after the game has already began.
Since in-game odds fluctuate quickly depending on what’s occurring, bettors may exploit the volatility of a game, set up arbitrage or middling chances, and even hedge earlier bets to profit.
The models and algorithms used by sports Betting to generate live lines are only as good as the information sent into them, and there is a lot of new data acquired once the game begins that we didn’t have before.
Following are some fundamental live betting rules:
- Bet during commercial breaks or stoppages
- Profit from price errors caused by inaccurate data.
- Injuries caused by live bets
- Compute possessions for live totals.
- Profit from volatility – it’s a game of runs, as the saying goes.
- Rotational learning is essential for success.
6. Do Not Tease Basketball
This should go without saying, but some casual bettors may need to be made aware.
NFL teasers are valuable since a football game normally consists of 12 possessions. Teasing a game six points amounts to roughly one touchdown and allows enough leeway for each teaser leg to meet the 72.3% barrier required to break even.
On the other hand, NBA games feature an average of 100 possessions, so teasing a spread of four points is just two possessions, which might be overcome in less than a minute. There are just too many possessions in a basketball game to make it worthwhile to tease it.
Consider normal two-team four-point teasers at (-110 odds) in basketball. Adding four points to a team’s spread gives them a 66% chance of covering, much below the 72.3% required to break even. Reasonable odds on such teasers are closer to +130, but you’re still paying -110, which gives you a negative expectation in the long run.
7. Online Shopping
This is essential in every sport. Always have access to many sportsbooks to get the greatest line for making the smartest NBA choices. If 1XBET has the Milwaukee Bucks listed at -3.5 for a game and OKBET has them at -3, you should bet on OKBET. As previously stated, a half point may substantially impact your victory rate.
The same is true for the vig. Some books have a spread or total of -120, while others have it at -110. To break even on -110 bets, you must win 52.38% of your wagers. To break even at -120, you must win 54.5% of the time. That’s a 2.12% advantage.
You can always discover the best, most up-to-date line on any game by visiting the NBA Online Betting PH page. If you’re new to gambling, you may get sign-up bonuses tailored to your state right here.
8. Keep Track of Your NBA Betting
Tracking your bets — anything from a point spread to a moneyline to a prop bet — in OKBET App is one of the finest things you can do to become a successful NBA gambler. Our recommended site calculates your ROI for each wager type, and you may begin to discover patterns to understand your strengths and weaknesses.
After monitoring your bets with our app, you’ll know where to focus your efforts when making wagers in the future.